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Availability Heuristic: The "What Comes to Mind is Everything" Illusion

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"A plane crash was on the news. Flying is scary." "I saw a lottery winner! I could win too!" The Availability Heuristic is a cognitive shortcut where we judge based on information that easily comes to mind. We assess the world not by actual probabilities, but by the vividness of memories.

Related Articles: Confirmation Bias | Representativeness Heuristic

Definition​

Availability Heuristic is a psychological phenomenon where we judge the likelihood of an event by 'how easily we can recall it'.

Key Characteristics

  • Easily recalled examples = Common occurrences
  • Vivid memories = High probability
  • Excessive reliance on recent experiences
  • Actual statistics are ignored

Discovery: Kahneman and Tversky (1973)​

Bias Proven Through Experiments​

Experiment 1: Word Frequency

  • Question: "Words starting with R vs Words with R as the third letter, which are more?"
  • Most answered: "Words starting with R"
  • Reality: Third-letter R is 3 times more common
  • Reason: Words starting with R are easier to recall

Experiment 2: Causes of Death

  • Question: "Cancer vs Heart Disease, which has more deaths?"
  • Many people: "Cancer"
  • Reality: Heart disease is more common
  • Reason: Cancer news is more frequent and vivid

Insights

  • Humans can't calculate probabilities accurately
  • Instead, judge by "ease of memory retrieval"
  • Media exposure distorts perception

Availability Heuristic in Everyday Life​

1. Fear of Flying​

After News

  • "Saw a plane crash news"
  • "Flying is dangerous"
  • "Cars must be safer"

Actual Statistics

  • Plane crash deaths: Hundreds annually (worldwide)
  • Car accident deaths: Over 1 million annually
  • Planes are thousands of times safer than cars

Why Scary

  • Plane crashes are extensively reported
  • Car accidents seem mundane
  • Vivid memories distort probabilities

Related: Confirmation Bias

2. Crime Anxiety​

Media Influence

  • "Saw a robbery news yesterday"
  • "Our neighborhood is dangerous"
  • "Can't go out at night"

Actual Crime Rates

  • Most countries see crime rate decreasing
  • Media focuses on exceptional events
  • Safe neighborhoods feel threatening

Results

  • Excessive anxiety
  • Reduced quality of life
  • Irrational defensive behaviors

3. Lottery Purchases​

After Winner Announcement

"Someone won 1 billion!"
"I could win too!"
People queuing at lottery stores

Actual Probability

  • First prize odds: About 1 in 8 million
  • Lower chance than being struck by lightning
  • Negative expected value

Why Buy

  • Winners make news (vividness)
  • Millions of non-winners remain unseen
  • Illusion of "I can win"

4. Health Concerns​

Exposure to Disease Information

  • A friend diagnosed with cancer
  • "Could I get cancer?"
  • Excessive tests, increased anxiety

Reality

  • Specific symptoms prompted testing
  • Healthy people don't make news
  • Statistically still low probability

Problems

  • Health anxiety
  • Unnecessary medical expenses
  • Stress potentially harming health

Recent Success Stories

  • "Made money with Bitcoin!"
  • "Got rich through real estate!"
  • "I should do this too!"

Invisible Aspects

  • Thousands who lost money
  • Those who missed the timing
  • Investors drowning in debt

Results

  • Buying at peak prices
  • Losses
  • Frustration of "Why only me?"

Why Does It Occur?​

1. Brain's Pursuit of Efficiency​

Cognitive Shortcuts

  • Cannot calculate all information
  • "Quickly recalled" = Important
  • Evolutionarily useful method

2. Media Bias​

News Value

  • "Dog bites person" - Not news
  • "Person bites dog" - Headline
  • Exceptional things get reported

Distorted Worldview

  • More news makes world seem more dangerous
  • Actually becoming safer
  • Media distorts reality perception

3. Emotions and Vividness​

Strong Emotion = Strong Memory

  • Ordinary events aren't remembered
  • Shocking events vividly remembered
  • Emotions dominate judgment

4. Recent Experiences​

Temporal Proximity

  • Yesterday's events are vivid
  • Events from a year ago are blurry
  • Recent = Mistaken for high probability

Overcoming Methods​

1. Check Statistics​

Feelings vs Data

Feeling: "Terrorism is scary"
Data: Compare terrorism deaths vs traffic accident deaths

Examples

  • "Plane vs Car accident rates"
  • "Crime trend statistics"
  • "Disease incidence"

Effects

  • Understand objective risk
  • Reduce anxiety
  • Make rational decisions

Related: Survivorship Bias

2. Find Contrary Cases​

Intentional Search

  • "Millions of safe plane landings"
  • "Millions of crime-free days"
  • "Billions who didn't win lottery"

Ask Questions

  • "What isn't coming to mind?"
  • "What hasn't been reported?"
  • "What are typical cases?"

3. Consider Base Rate​

Think About Total Population

  • Event count vs Total population
  • Winners vs Total buyers
  • Success cases vs Total attempts

Example

News: "20-something earned 1 billion with Bitcoin"
Base Rate: How many out of 1 million Bitcoin investors?

4. Media Literacy​

Critical Viewing

  • "Why is this news being reported?"
  • "What isn't being reported?"
  • "Is this typical or exceptional?"

Balance

  • Diverse sources
  • Statistics-based news
  • Look at long-term trends

5. Recognize "Easy to Recall"​

Self-Questioning

"Why is this easy to recall?"
- Recently seen?
- Shocking?
- Extensively media-covered?

Adjust

  • Easy to recall ≠ High probability
  • Vividness ≠ Importance
  • Step back and observe

Impact of Availability Heuristic​

Personal Level​

1. Unnecessary Anxiety

  • Fear of flying
  • Health anxiety
  • Crime fears

2. Irrational Decisions

  • Judging safe things as dangerous
  • Considering dangerous things safe
  • Choices ignoring probabilities

3. Opportunity Cost

  • Wasting money on lottery
  • Over-insuring
  • Unnecessary defensive actions

Social Level​

1. Policy Distortion

  • Overreacting to media issues
  • Overlooking actual risks
  • Inefficient resource allocation

Example

  • Massive budgets for terrorism response
  • Relatively small budgets for traffic safety
  • Actually more casualties from traffic accidents

2. Fear Politics

  • Politicians cultivating fear
  • Restricting rights under "safety"
  • Exaggerated threats

3. Market Distortion

  • Investing following trends
  • Bubble formation
  • Collective irrationality

Practical Application​

1. Decision Checklist​

Before Important Decisions

□ Is this judgment overly influenced by recent experiences?
□ Has media exposure distorted my perception?
□ What do actual statistics say?
□ What contrary cases aren't coming to mind?
□ What is the base rate?

2. Risk Assessment​

Relative Comparison

Risk A: Vividness ★★★★★ / Actual Probability ★☆☆☆☆
Risk B: Vividness ★☆☆☆☆ / Actual Probability ★★★★☆
→ Should pay more attention to B

3. News Consumption Habits​

Balancing

  • Limit daily news to 30 minutes
  • Find statistics-based content
  • Read long-term trend analyses
  • Think about "what didn't happen today"

4. Investment Principles​

Establish Principles

X "Someone made money" → Invest
O Fundamental analysis + Risk assessment → Invest

X Judge by recent returns
O Judge by 10-year long-term data

5. Managing Fear​

Reality Check

  • When anxious → Find statistics
  • "How common is this?"
  • "What's the actual probability?"
  • Manage anxiety with numbers

Good to know together:

Conclusion​

Availability Heuristic is a powerful cognitive bias where we mistake what easily comes to mind for actual probability. Media and recent experiences distort our judgments, creating a significant gap between perceived and actual risks.

Key Lessons

  1. Recall ≠ Probability - Vividness and frequency differ
  2. Check Statistics - Trust data over feelings
  3. Doubt Media - News reports exceptions
  4. Remember Base Rate - Think about total population

Mistaken Phrases

  • "It's common because it's often in the news"
  • "I recently saw it, so it'll happen again"
  • "It's important because I remember it vividly"

Wise Questions

  • "What do actual statistics say?"
  • "Why is this coming to my mind?"
  • "How many ordinary, unreported cases exist?"
  • "What does it look like in numbers, not emotions?"

Practice Methods

  • Check statistics before important decisions
  • Ask "Why am I recalling this?"
  • Intentionally find contrary cases
  • Don't be swayed by media

True Wisdom

  • Vividness doesn't mean importance
  • Ordinary things are the real reality
  • Numbers are more honest than feelings
  • Don't miss the quiet truth

"What comes to mind most easily isn't necessarily the most common. What makes the news is the exception, and what doesn't make the news is daily life. Statistics speak quietly but truthfully."

The world is safer than the news, rewards effort more than lotteries, and has more hope than anxiety.